Mens & Maatschappij - Volume 96, Issue 2, 2021

More than a boost in political trust: Dutch public opinion during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Dutch public opinion was largely characterized by a more positive outlook on society and politics. We give explanations for this rather positive spirit based on literature on earlier crises and we outline the changes in public opinion between January and April 2020 (using the Citizens' Outlooks Barometer). We will complement this quantitative analysis by analysing several open-ended questions to enhance our knowledge on the individual’s perceptions, attitudes and judgments about politics and society at the beginning of the pandemic. Our qualitative data analysis shows that the boost in political trust is driven by a specific appreciation of proceedings during the crisis and not by future expectations. But moreover, while this political ‘rally-round-the-flag’ phenomenon became centre stage of the crisis literature, we actually found that this is less salient than the societal outlook during a crisis: many citizens also express a reappraisal of society.

A polarization pandemic?

Political polarization has been identified as a key societal risk of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. While various actors have expressed concern about extreme single-issue opinions, mass polarization may be characterized better as increasing association between various opinions. This could lead to deepening cleavages as new issues arise.

We thus describe opinions surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic relative to pre-existing mass opinion structures. We review the science on polarization, ultimately focusing on the Netherlands specifically. Using survey data of Dutch social media users (N = 216), we find that opinion clustering on general political issues is loose, and that these clusters do not uniformly predict attitudes towards measures to combat consequences of COVID-19. Nevertheless, the found clusters are better predictors than ideological identification. These results stress the importance of conceptualizing polarization as multi-attitudinal clustering rather than as unidimensional opinion difference.

Social capital as protection against the mental impact of COVID-19

The corona pandemic has a huge impact on the mental wellbeing of the Dutch population. This article, based on a large-scale internet survey (N = 22,696) on the social impact of COVID-19, firstly examines which social groups are most susceptible to the mental health impact of the virus. Secondly, we examine whether social capital provides protection against this impact. We find that the mental health impact of COVID-19 is considerable and that it increased over the course of 2020. Women, young people, respondents with low incomes and/or poor health experience relatively more fear and stress due to the virus. We do not find a difference between respondents with or without a migration background. Social capital (received support, trust in people and in institutions) has the expected effect: the more support and trust, the less fear and stress. There is a mediation effect. Older people, respondents with high incomes and/or good health experience less fear and stress, partly because they have more social capital. This is different for females. They would experience even more fear and stress, compared to men, were it not for the fact that they have more social capital. Hence we conclude that social capital indeed provides some protection against the negative mental health effects of COVID-19.

Attitudes about gender and the care for small children before and after the first lockdown in the Netherlands

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to major changes in the division of paid and unpaid work in many Dutch households. Before the pandemic, work-care patterns were relatively traditional in the majority of families in the Netherlands, with women performing more unpaid tasks and men more paid work. These patterns were disrupted during the lockdown by the obligation to work from home and formal and informal childcare being unavailable. This meant that fathers were much more exposed to care and household tasks than before the pandemic. This effect was potentially reinforced by the fact that many ‘essential workers’ in education and healthcare were female, leaving their male partner to take over (extra) care tasks at home. But did these changes in the division of tasks also affect normative attitudes about gender and care? In this study we aim to answer this question using longitudinal data collected among 300 respondents in the Netherlands before (early 2019/2020) and after (July 2020) the first lockdown. We expect that attitudes about men’s caring capabilities have become more positive in partnered men and women if the male partner was working from home. The empirical results show that attitudes about gender roles regarding child rearing have become more traditional after the lockdown and this is particularly the case for men who worked from home while their partner continued to work outside the home.

Are we in this together? Changes in anti-immigrant sentiments before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is posing a pathogen or even existential threat to people all across the globe. According to traditional literature, threat perceptions induce anti-immigrant sentiments, as ingroup identity and self-interest are strengthened at the expense of the outgroup. In this manuscript, we study whether the COVID-19 pandemic, as a universal and relatively novel threat, increases anti-immigrant sentiments akin to responses to realistic and symbolic threats frequently described in the literature. We also look at whether such responses are expressed more strongly among specific groups in Dutch society. To do so, we use unique longitudinal panel data based on the European Values Study 2017, representative of the Netherlands, with a repeated measure in May 2020, during the national lockdown. Based on structural equation modeling, we demonstrate that anti-immigrant sentiments have not increased due to (perceived threat of) the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, negative opinions towards immigrants decreased between 2017 and 2020 in the Netherlands, for which we provide alternative explanations. Although some subgroups do experience more threat than others due to the coronavirus, such as women, first generation immigrants, and the elderly, this does not lead to more negative feelings towards outgroups. Whether this is due to the fact that individuals feel pathogenically threatened by everyone, regardless of group membership, should be explored in future research.