oa Onderzoeksnotitie

Demand for services and staff in long term elderly care

The demand for nursing and care services, and the related demand for staff, will rise the next few decades due to the ageing of the population. At the same time the labour force will decrease. Staff shortages in the care sector are therefore anticipated. In this article we compile a staff forecasting model based on expectations regarding future use of nursing and care services. The sector employed approximately 220,000 person-years (FTE). We expect an increase in the demand for staff by 1.2% per annum, which leads to a total need for nearly 300.000 FTE in 2030. Further developments such as the increasing use of community based-care and personal budgets or reduction in funded care packages would lead to upward or downward adjustments of the forecasts. The study shows that caution is needed when assuming that the expected demand for labour can be damped by increasing labour productivity. Up to date, such trends are not shown in elderly care.